More Swine/A(H1N1)/Mexican Flu

A(H1N1): Just Another Flu | STRATFOR (Subscription requiered)

It has been five months since the A(H1N1) influenza virus — aka the swine flu — climbed to the top of the global media heap, and with the start of the Northern Hemisphere’s annual flu season just around the corner, the topic is worth revisiting.

If you take only one fact away from this analysis, take this: The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) believes that hospitalization rates and mortality rates for A(H1N1) are similar to or lower than they are for more traditional influenza strains. And if you take two facts away, consider this as well: Influenza data are incomplete at best and rarely cross-comparable, so any assertions of the likelihood of mass deaths are little more than scaremongering bereft of any real analysis or, more important, any actual evidence. [My emphasis]

Mexico will continue to shoot itself in the foot over this. Sinaloa has already closed schools in anticipation of the virus. Even today, the government must be meeting to discuss just what measures to adopt that will lower the nation's GDP even more—in fell some nine percent in the first quarter and ten percent in the second.